Projected future climatic forcing on the global distribution of vegetation types.

Most emissions scenarios suggest temperature and precipitation regimes will change dramatically across the globe over the next 500 years. These changes will have large impacts on the biosphere, with species forced to migrate to follow their preferred environmental conditions, therefore moving and fragmenting ecosystems. However, most projections of the impacts of climate change only reach 2100, limiting our understanding of the temporal scope of climate impacts, and potentially impeding suitable adaptive action. To address this data gap, we model future climate change every 20 years from 2000 to 2500 CE, under different CO2 emissions scenarios, using a general circulation model. We then apply a biome model to these modelled climate futures, to investigate shifts in climatic forcing on vegetation worldwide, the feasibility of the migration required to enact these modelled vegetation changes, and potential overlap with human land use based on modern-day anthromes. Under a business-as-usual scenario, up to 40% of terrestrial area is expected to be suited to a different biome by 2500. Cold-adapted biomes, particularly boreal forest and dry tundra, are predicted to experience the greatest losses of suitable area. Without mitigation, these changes could have severe consequences both for global biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Meta-analysis indicates better climate adaptation and mitigation performance of hybrid engineering-natural coastal defence measures.

Traditional approaches to coastal defence often struggle to reduce the risks of accelerated climate change. Incorporating nature-based components into coastal defences may enhance adaptation to climate change with added benefits, but we need to compare their performance against conventional hard measures. We conduct a meta-analysis that compares the performances of hard, hybrid, soft and natural measures for coastal defence across different functions of risk reduction, climate change mitigation, and cost-effectiveness. Hybrid and soft measures offer higher risk reduction and climate change mitigation benefits than unvegetated natural systems, while performing on par with natural measures. Soft and hybrid measures are more cost-effective than hard measures, while hybrid measures provide the highest hazard reduction among all measures. All coastal defence measures have a positive economic return over a 20-year period. Mindful of risk context, our results provide strong an evidence-base for integrating and upscaling nature-based components into coastal defences in lower risk areas.

Joined-up governance for more complementary interactions between expanding artisanal small-scale gold mining and agriculture: Insights from Ghana.

Rising gold prices have led artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) operations to proliferate in sub-Saharan Africa, extending into agricultural areas. Little is known about the interactions between agriculture and mining in these new frontiers. This study aimed to investigate the impacts of ASGM on natural and physical livelihood capitals, ASGM's interactions with agriculture at household, community and institutional levels and the drivers underpinning those interactions, and the policy implications for the co-existence of sustainable agriculture and ASGM. Alongside literature review, field-work took place in Atiwa West District and Koforidua, Ghana using environmental field surveys, questionnaires, focus group discussions and interviews. Questionnaire and field survey data were analysed using descriptive statistics, with thematic analysis of interviews and focus group data. Findings revealed that most miners were unregulated, mined irresponsibly and degraded land, waterways, and farm roads. Over one-third of farmers (38%) suffered land degradation, and 79% of affected farmers' lands were not reclaimed. Farmers diversified into ASGM, and mining proceeds boosted farming. Young farmers (18-40 years) shifted into ASGM full-time because it is more lucrative. Yet, ASGM is not replacing agriculture: cocoa farming remains a vital economic activity. Informal ASGM generates short-term income at household level for some but imposes long-term costs at community level, linked to cumulative loss of agricultural land and degradation of forest areas and water bodies, creating tensions, and increasing vulnerability. Financial hardships faced by farmers, landowners' desire to benefit directly from gold and lack of law enforcement drive informal ASGM. There are no institutional linkages between the agricultural and mining sectors. More joined up governance across agriculture and mining is needed and between formal and informal (traditional) institutions. ASGM should be incorporated into broader rural development policy reforms that support farmers, incentivise miners to operate legally and responsibly and ensure effective stakeholder engagement.

Fast-tracking action on the Sustainable Development Goals by enhancing national institutional arrangements.

Six years remain to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Despite some progress, institutional effectiveness for SDG achievement has not been delivered at a national level. Identification and establishment of an institutional framework to operationalise the 2030 Agenda within national plans, giving science-based coordination of SDG implementation a central role, is urgently required to accelerate progress. This paper tackles this challenge. Drawing on literature analysis, it asks: 1) What are the deficiencies in institutional national arrangements that hinder SDG implementation? 2) How can existing institutional deficiencies in SDG implementation be addressed? and 3) How can institutional changes support fast-tracking of SDG implementation processes at national level? Findings show that country-specific horizontal institutional arrangements are usually advanced. However, national visions to improve mainstreaming across decision-making at different levels to enable whole-of-government and whole-of-society approaches to SDG implementation are commonly under-developed. Deficiencies are due to poor systematic engagement of scientific and technical expertise in operational day-to-day communication, as well as in the design, validation, implementation, monitoring and reporting of domestic SDG-related multi-stakeholder actions. Vertical institutional arrangements are complex, and risk resource-consuming, uncoordinated implementation. Our analyses suggest countries may benefit from establishing a national, centralised independent scientific and technical coordinating body for SDG implementation at national level, within existing science-based institutional arrangements. Such a body would not be led by governmental processes but would provide technical support to government agencies. We argue that scientific and technical skills in data and information management and quality control are central to coordinated and evidence-informed support, and could help to accelerate national SDG implementation. Such a supporting body would also enable a more joined-up approach between stakeholders working in the areas of science and technology, government and practice, improving orchestrated science-based actions and their auditing across sectors and stakeholder communities at national and sub-national levels. It would further guide actions to reduce trade-offs within national sustainable development aspirations, and would facilitate consideration of diverse values in advancing towards a durable and just transformative future. Such efforts are vital given the rapidly closing window of time for SDG achievement.

Effects of aridification on soil total carbon pools in China's drylands.

Drylands are important carbon pools and are highly vulnerable to climate change, particularly in the context of increasing aridity. However, there has been limited research on the effects of aridification on soil total carbon including soil organic carbon and soil inorganic carbon, which hinders comprehensive understanding and projection of soil carbon dynamics in drylands. To determine the response of soil total carbon to aridification, and to understand how aridification drives soil total carbon variation along the aridity gradient through different ecosystem attributes, we measured soil organic carbon, inorganic carbon and total carbon across a ~4000 km aridity gradient in the drylands of northern China. Distribution patterns of organic carbon, inorganic carbon, and total carbon at different sites along the aridity gradient were analyzed. Results showed that soil organic carbon and inorganic carbon had a complementary relationship, that is, an increase in soil inorganic carbon positively compensated for the decrease in organic carbon in semiarid to hyperarid regions. Soil total carbon exhibited a nonlinear change with increasing aridity, and the effect of aridity on total carbon shifted from negative to positive at an aridity level of 0.71. In less arid regions, aridification leads to a decrease in total carbon, mainly through a decrease in organic carbon, whereas in more arid regions, aridification promotes an increase in inorganic carbon and thus an increase in total carbon. Our study highlights the importance of soil inorganic carbon to total carbon and the different effects of aridity on soil carbon pools in drylands. Soil total carbon needs to be considered when developing measures to conserve the terrestrial carbon sink.

Knowledge exchange in the implementation of National Environmental Programmes (NEPs) in China: A complex picture.

Knowledge is an intrinsic element of environmental management. Understanding what kinds of knowledge are needed and how to communicate them effectively is crucial for building environmental management capacity. Despite extensive research, knowledge and its exchange are commonly considered from the viewpoint of its creators and disseminators, rather than that of its recipients. This can lead to mismatches between supply of and demand for knowledge, and futile knowledge exchange that undermines the effectiveness of interventions. Research is needed that looks carefully at the contexts and consequences of such scenarios. Addressing this gap, we examine the implementation of National Environmental Programs (NEPs) in north-western China, drawing from interviews and questionnaires with scientists, grassroots implementers, and farmers and herders, to identify what and how knowledge has been exchanged and what their perspectives are about knowledge exchange with other actors. We ascertain the positive impacts of knowledge exchange during NEP implementation, as well as the consequences when it is lacking, by analysing the interfaces and interactions between actors, seeking explanation for successes and failures. We conclude that with changing socio-ecological systems, knowledge and its exchange also need to change accordingly, extending beyond the environmental domain to integrate local socioeconomic concerns. Such efforts are necessary to improve environmental management outcomes and advance sustainable development.

Effects of vegetation restoration on soil properties and vegetation attributes in the arid and semi-arid regions of China.

Driven by the goal of reversing desertification and recovering degraded lands, a wide range of vegetation restoration practices (such as planting and fencing) have been implemented in China's drylands. It is essential to examine the effects of vegetation restoration and environmental factors on soil nutrients to optimize restoration approaches. However, quantitative evaluation on this topic is insufficient due to a lack of long-term field monitoring data. This study evaluated the effects of sandy steppe restoration and sand dune fixation in the semi-arid desert, and natural and artificial vegetation restoration in the arid desert. It considered soil and plant characteristics using long-term (2005-2015) data from the Naiman Research Station located in the semi-arid region and Shapotou Research Station in the arid region of China's drylands. Results showed the sandy steppe had higher soil nutrient contents, vegetation biomass and rate of accumulating soil organic matter (OM) than the fixed dunes and moving dunes. Soil nutrient contents and vegetation biomass of the natural vegetation of Artemisia ordosica were higher than those of the artificial restoration of Artemisia ordosica since 1956. Artificial restoration had a higher rate of accumulating soil OM, total nitrogen (TN) and grass litter biomass than natural restoration. Soil water indirectly affected soil OM by affecting vegetation. Grass diversity was the main influencing factor on soil OM variance in the semi-arid Naiman desert while shrub diversity was the main factor in the arid Shapotou desert. These findings indicate that sand fixation in the semi-arid desert and vegetation restoration in the arid desert bring benefits for soil nutrient accumulation and vegetation improvement, and that natural restoration is preferable to artificial restoration. Results can be used to formulate sustainable vegetation restoration strategies, such as encouraging natural restoration, considering local resource constraints, and giving priority to restoring shrubs in arid areas with limited water.

Effects of grazing and enclosure management on soil physical and chemical properties vary with aridity in China's drylands.

Dryland soils are nutrient-poor and prone to degradation due to aridity, grazing and enclosure. It is essential to examine the effects of grazing and enclosure on aridity-induced soil degradation in dryland ecosystems to optimize land management practices in response to climate change. However, quantitative evaluation on this topic is scarce due to a lack of long-term field monitoring data. This study evaluated the combined effects of aridity and grazing/enclosure using long-term data (2005-2015) from three research stations on soil physical and chemical properties in typical steppes and desert steppes across the semi-arid and hyper-arid areas of China's drylands. Results showed that soil organic matter (OM) content was higher for enclosures (20.50 g/kg) than for grazing (19.06 g/kg). In the semi-arid steppe, enclosures aged 30-33 years had the highest soil total nitrogen (TN) content (1.21 g/kg). Longer enclosures aged 34-36 years showed decreased soil TN content (0.88 g/kg). In the desert steppe, enclosures aged 5-8 years exhibited the highest soil OM (2.44 g/kg) and TN (0.21 g/kg) contents. Grazing enhanced the decrease of OM content (from 4.57 to 2.39 g/kg) with increasing aridity (1 - aridity index) from 0.35 to 1. These findings indicate that enclosures can improve soil fertility, but prolonged enclosures may have negative effects. Grazing had a synergistic effect on the decrease of OM with aridity. Results can be used in response to climate changes to formulate sustainable land management strategies, such as reducing the enclosure period in wetter and restored areas, and diminishing the grazing intensity in areas with higher aridity.

Climate-resilient development planning for cities: progress from Cape Town.

Priorities and programmes in the City of Cape Town's Integrated Development Plan (2022-2027) demonstrate progress towards operationalising local level planning for climate-resilient development. These developments provide lessons of process and focus on transformative outcomes for cities seeking equitable and just development while implementing climate change adaptation and mitigation.

Recommendations to guide sampling effort for polygon-based participatory mapping used to identify perceived ecosystem services hotspots.

Participatory mapping is increasingly used to map spatial variation in people's perceptions about ecosystem services. It has growing use in the identification of locations where places perceived to be important converge. Few recommendations have been published to navigate decisions about sampling effort in participatory mapping research when polygon data is collected, although one recommendation is for ≥ 25 participants assuming each participant maps c. 4-5 polygons per ecosystem service. Underlying data informing this recommendation reflects a particular context: collected using postal questionnaires to map a vast spatial area in southern Australia. Although not intended as definitive or suited to all contexts, the 25 participant (or 100-125 polygon) minimum sometimes informs participatory mapping research. Our empirical work, undertaken using face-to-face questionnaires in a small Vietnamese coastal study area, suggests the recommendation may not be appropriate in all contexts. We propose a modified stepwise approach which:•Prioritises spatial agreement (polygon overlap) rather than polygon count and participant numbers to assess data sufficiency•Uses narratives to triangulate outputs generated from participatory mapping data to reduce uncertainty related to low polygon counts.

Meeting sustainable development goals via robotics and autonomous systems.

Robotics and autonomous systems are reshaping the world, changing healthcare, food production and biodiversity management. While they will play a fundamental role in delivering the UN Sustainable Development Goals, associated opportunities and threats are yet to be considered systematically. We report on a horizon scan evaluating robotics and autonomous systems impact on all Sustainable Development Goals, involving 102 experts from around the world. Robotics and autonomous systems are likely to transform how the Sustainable Development Goals are achieved, through replacing and supporting human activities, fostering innovation, enhancing remote access and improving monitoring. Emerging threats relate to reinforcing inequalities, exacerbating environmental change, diverting resources from tried-and-tested solutions and reducing freedom and privacy through inadequate governance. Although predicting future impacts of robotics and autonomous systems on the Sustainable Development Goals is difficult, thoroughly examining technological developments early is essential to prevent unintended detrimental consequences. Additionally, robotics and autonomous systems should be considered explicitly when developing future iterations of the Sustainable Development Goals to avoid reversing progress or exacerbating inequalities.

At high stocking rates, cattle do not functionally replace wild herbivores in shaping understory community composition.

Over a quarter of the world's land surface is grazed by cattle and other livestock, which are replacing wild herbivores, potentially impairing ecosystem structure, and functions. Previous research suggests that cattle at moderate stocking rates can functionally replace wild herbivores in shaping understory communities. However, it is uncertain whether this is also true under high stocking rates and the effects of wild herbivore on plant communities are moderate, enhanced, or simply additive to the effects of cattle at high stocking rates. To evaluate the influence of cattle stocking rates on the ability of cattle to functionally replace wild herbivores and test for interactive effects between cattle and wild herbivores in shaping understory vegetation, we assessed herbaceous vegetation in a long-term exclosure experiment in a semi-arid savanna in central Kenya that selectively excludes wild mesoherbivores (50-1000 kg) and megaherbivores (elephant and giraffe). We tested the effects of cattle stocking rate (zero/moderate/high) on herbaceous vegetation (diversity, composition, leafiness). We also tested how those effects depend on the presence of wild mesoherbivores and megaherbivores. We found that herbaceous community composition (primary ordination axis) was better explained by the presence/absence of herbivore types than by total herbivory, suggesting that herbivore identity is a more important determinant of community composition than total herbivory at high cattle stocking rates. The combination of wild mesoherbivores and cattle stocked at high rates led to increased bare ground and annual grass cover, reduced perennial grass cover and understory leafiness, and enhanced understory diversity. These shifts were weaker or absent when cattle were stocked at high stocking rates in the absence of wild mesoherbivores. Megaherbivores tempered the effects of cattle stocked at high rates on herbaceous community composition but amplified the effects of high cattle stocking rate on bare ground and understory diversity. Our results show that cattle at high stocking rates do not functionally replace wild herbivores in shaping savanna herbaceous communities contrary to previous findings at moderate stocking rates. In mixed-use rangelands, interactions between cattle stocking rate and wild herbivore presence can lead to non-additive vegetation responses with important implications for both wildlife conservation and livestock production.

Climate change research and action must look beyond 2100.

Anthropogenic activity is changing Earth's climate and ecosystems in ways that are potentially dangerous and disruptive to humans. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere continue to rise, ensuring that these changes will be felt for centuries beyond 2100, the current benchmark for projection. Estimating the effects of past, current, and potential future emissions to only 2100 is therefore short-sighted. Critical problems for food production and climate-forced human migration are projected to arise well before 2100, raising questions regarding the habitability of some regions of the Earth after the turn of the century. To highlight the need for more distant horizon scanning, we model climate change to 2500 under a suite of emission scenarios and quantify associated projections of crop viability and heat stress. Together, our projections show global climate impacts increase significantly after 2100 without rapid mitigation. As a result, we argue that projections of climate and its effects on human well-being and associated governance and policy must be framed beyond 2100.

How urbanisation alters the intensity of the urban heat island in a tropical African city.

Due to the combined effects of urban growth and climate change, rapid urbanisation is particularly challenging in African cities. Areas that will house a large proportion of the urban population in the future coincide with where natural hazards are expected to occur, and where hazard risk management institutions, knowledge, and capacity are often lacking. One of the challenges posed by rapid urbanisation is the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, whereby urban areas are warmer than the surrounding rural areas. This study investigates urbanisation patterns and alterations in surface UHI (SUHI) intensity for the Kampala urban cluster, Uganda. Analyses show that between 1995 and 2017, Kampala underwent extensive changes to its urban built-up area. From the centre of the city to adjoining non-built up areas in all directions, the urban land cover increased from 12,133 ha in 1995 to 25,389 ha in 2016. The area of SUHI intensity in Kampala expanded significantly over the 15-year period of study, expanding from 22,910 ha in 2003 to 27,900 ha in 2016, while the annual daytime SUHI of 2.2°C in 2003 had decreased to 1.9°C by 2017. Although SUHI intensity decreased in some parts of the city, elsewhere it increased, suggesting that urbanisation does not always lead to a deterioration of environmental conditions. We postulate that urban development may therefore not necessarily create an undesirable impact on local climate if it is properly managed. Rapidly growing cities in Africa and elsewhere should ensure that the dynamics of their development are directed towards mitigating potentially harmful environmental impacts, such as UHI effect through careful planning that considers both bluespaces and greenspaces.

The influence of human values on attitudes and behaviours towards forest conservation.

Human attitudes and behaviours have been linked to the degradation of global biodiversity, particularly forest ecosystems. Indeed, effective conservation actions require that the attitudes and behaviours of affected individuals and communities are taken into account. While several studies have examined how human attitudes and behaviours affect conservation, it is still unclear which, and how, human value orientations influence conservation attitudes and behaviour. This is critical because attitudes and behaviours are underpinned by the complex concept of human values. Thus, effective management and conservation of environmental resources requires an in-depth knowledge and understanding of these values, and how they affect attitudinal and behavioural preferences towards the natural environment and their protection. Here we review the human value orientations influencing people's attitudes and behaviours towards forest conservation, and discuss how conservation projects can be more successful by aligning their goals and operations to people's values. To do this, we carried out a scoping review, using the sub-Saharan Africa region as a case study, and followed the PRISMA-ScR systematic review guidelines. A narrative synthesis was adopted for data analysis. We identified different value types that fall within three broad human value orientation domains influencing forest conservation attitudes and behaviours. Anthropocentric and relational value orientations emerged as most dominant, with both positive and negative influences on a number of forest conservation attitudes and behaviours, albeit with more evidence for positive influence. The positive attitudes and behaviours were linked to utilitarian motivations and cultural beliefs and include rural support for conservation, compliance to forest rules, sustainable forest use, and participation in forest management. The values linked to dependence on forest resources, low benefits from conservation, and conservation costs, tend to trigger negative conservation attitudes and behaviours. To effectively achieve forest conservation goals, environmental managers, conservationists, and decision-makers should understand the extent and directional influence of value orientations on conservation attitudes and behaviours.

Smallholder perceptions of land restoration activities: rewetting tropical peatland oil palm areas in Sumatra, Indonesia.

The Indonesian government committed to restoring over 2 million ha of degraded peatland by the end of 2020, mainly to reduce peat fires and greenhouse gas emissions. Although it is unlikely the government will meet this target, restoration projects are still underway. One restoration strategy involves blocking peatland drainage canals, but the consequences of this for smallholder farmers whose livelihoods are dependent on agriculture are unclear. This paper investigates perceived impacts of canal blocks on smallholder farmers and identifies factors that affect their willingness to accept canal blocks on their land. We use data from 181 household questionnaires collected in 2018 across three villages in Jambi province, Sumatra. We found that the majority of respondents would accept canal blocks on their farms, perceiving that the blocks would have no impact on yields or farm access, and would decrease fire risk. Respondents who would not accept blocks on their farms were more likely to use canals to access their farms and perceive that canal blocks would decrease yields. The majority of farmers unwilling to accept canal blocks did not change their mind when provided with an option of a block that would allow boat travel. Our results improve understanding of why some smallholders may be unwilling to engage with peatland restoration. Further research is needed to understand the impact of canal blocks on smallholders' yields. Engaging with stakeholders from the outset to understand farmers' concerns, and perceptions is key if the government is to succeed in meeting its peatland restoration target and to ensure that the costs and benefits of restoration are evenly shared between local stakeholders and other actors. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-020-01737-z.

Perceived Climate Variability and Compounding Stressors: Implications for Risks to Livelihoods of Smallholder Indian Farmers.

Micro-scale perspectives are seldom included in planned climate change adaptations, yet farmers' perceptions can provide useful insights into livelihood impacts from interactions between climatic and other stressors. This research aims to understand how climate variability and other stressors are impacting the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in Azamgarh district, eastern Uttar Pradesh, India. Data from 84 smallholder farmers were collected using mixed qualitative and quantitative approaches, including interview and participatory methods, informed by multiple stressor and sustainable livelihood frameworks. Results revealed that farmers are increasingly facing problems caused by the reduced duration and number of rainy days, and erratic rainfall. Anomalies in seasonal cycles (longer summers, shorter winters) seem to have altered the local climate. Farmers reported that repeated drought impacts, even in years of moderate rainfall, are adversely affecting the rice crop, challenging the formal definition of drought. Climate variability, identified as the foremost stressor, often acts as a risk multiplier for ecological (e.g., soil sodicity), socio-economic (e.g., rising costs of cultivation) and political (e.g., mismatching policies and poor extension systems) stressors. In addition to climate stresses, resource-poor marginal groups in particular experienced higher risks resulting from changes in resource management regimes. This study provides an important cue to revisit the formal definitions of normal rainfall and drought, accommodating farmers' perceptions that evenly distributed rainfall, and not total rainfall is a key determinant of crop yields. Though India has developed adaptive measures for climate change and variability, integration of farmers' perceptions of climate and other stressors into such policies can improve the resilience of smallholder farmers, who have hitherto depended largely on autonomous adaptation strategies.

Helping stakeholders select and apply appraisal tools to mitigate soil threats: Researchers' experiences from across Europe.

Soil improvement measures need to be ecologically credible, socially acceptable and economically affordable if they are to enter widespread use. However, in real world decision contexts not all measures can sufficiently meet these criteria. As such, developing, selecting and using appropriate tools to support more systematic appraisal of soil improvement measures in different decision-making contexts represents an important challenge. Tools differ in their aims, ranging from those focused on appraising issues of cost-effectiveness, wider ecosystem services impacts and adoption barriers/opportunities, to those seeking to foster participatory engagement and social learning. Despite the growing complexity of the decision-support tool landscape, comprehensive guidance for selecting tools that are best suited to appraise soil improvement measures, as well as those well-adapted to enable participatory deployment, has generally been lacking. We address this gap using the experience and survey data from an EU-funded project (RECARE: Preventing and REmediating degradation of soils in Europe through land CARE). RECARE applied different socio-cultural, biophysical and monetary appraisal tools to assess the costs, benefits and adoption of soil improvement measures across Europe. We focused on these appraisal tools and evaluated their performance against three broad attributes that gauge their differences and suitability for widespread deployment to aid stakeholder decision making in soil management. Data were collected using an online questionnaire administered to RECARE researchers. Although some tools worked better than others across case studies, the information collated was used to provide guiding strategies for choosing appropriate tools, considering resources and data availability, characterisation of uncertainty, and the purpose for which a specific soil improvement measure is being developed or promoted. This paper provides insights to others working in practical soil improvement contexts as to why getting the tools right matters. It demonstrates how use of the right tools can add value to decision-making in ameliorating soil threats, supporting the sustainable management of the services that our soil ecosystems provide.

Corruption and conflicts as barriers to adaptive governance: Water governance in dryland systems in the Rio del Carmen watershed.

Water governance in the Rio del Carmen watershed has failed to achieve sustainable water use, generating social conflicts, water overexploitation, and grassland loss. This leaves it unable to adapt and learn, to reconcile different stakeholder perspectives and to adequately respond to uncertainty. Adaptive water governance regulates water access through flexible, inclusive and innovative institutions, increasing system adaptive capacity in the face of uncertainty. This is necessary for water-scarce systems since they suffer context-specific exposure to land degradation and climate change. This research focuses on how water governance regulates water access in the Rio del Carmen watershed, Mexico, identifying key legal and institutional features that could increase adaptation and secure water resources in the long-term. 27 semi-structured interviews were conducted with key stakeholders in the watershed, in order to understand the water governance structure and its system dynamics. It was found that water mismanagement, overexploitation, and conflicts over access to water are due to the lack of application and neglect of formal rules. Results indicate that breaches of the legal framework are commonplace, permitted by corruption of both former and current government officials. Many farmers have institutionalized this corruption in order to access water; increasing social conflicts and hindering any type of planning or water management, which, in turn, continues to affect the ecological conditions of the watershed. By understanding the governance system, its structure and the interactions that weaken and bypass formal institutions to the detriment of water resources, stakeholder engagement has emerged as an entry point for enabling collaboration and acceptance of formal institutions. This process has the potential to create a formal network, as a Watershed Committee, that could be honoured in practice through the efficacy of this engagement.